A vote is indeed a culmination of many psychological reasons coming together.

But what is not analyzed here is why many voters do not vote.

My take is that campaigns are mostly about manipulating the soft support. Political parties are trying to get their soft supporters to the polls, hence the reason for canvassing. As well, political parties are trying to get the soft support of the opposition not to vote, hence the reason for negative advertising.

The campaign is not about trying to convince a contrary voter to vote in a different way. While change-of-vote does happen, the campaign is mostly shoring up its soft support and weakening the soft support of their opponent.

In a similar manner that this article suggests, soft-support voters are being pulled in opposite directions by psychological forces-----whether to vote or not to vote. Their preference may be clear, but their willingness to make a trip to the polls is not.

In 2020, 108m eligible American voters did not vote in the presidential race----despite the clear history that was being written in this election.

There is a lot of activity on Medium and Mastodon for 2024. Whether the activists understand this or not, their workings are influencing how many of the 108m will come out to vote in 2024, mostly in an anti-Republican way.

If half of that 108m do vote, then the USA will have a decisive election. 2020 was not decisive enough to dissipate the nefarious forces of American politics.