Agreed. My crystal ball says the biggest liklihood is a Republican oligarchy. But they will find governing very difficult--and won't last a decade before another revolution.

Various states seceding is likely going to be be met with a lot of intra-state disagreement as which which side the state belongs to. So status quo is the likely force. Maybe Alaska and Hawaii can pull a seccession off.

If things get real bad, then state lines won't function for much anymore. Lots of little kindgoms, like the Holy Roman Empire. I give this a higher probability than continental USA splitting into several sections.

But politics always seems to have interesting turns. No one foresaw a Trump presidency in 2012.