Henryk

Interesting piece and analysis.

There's been lots of articles on Medium about hows, whys, whens, whats, wheres, and whatevers about this conflict. The big people of Medium have lots to choose from. And they may have their own biases.

Foreign affairs is very complex and requires pragmatism. Yes, the long term is often sacrificed for the short term. Yes, history often repeats itself. But until someone has actually been in that kind of pressure cooker (and have to be somewhat politically accountable), it's too easy to say, "They should do this."

The West might be saying "no" for the moment, but I would wager that western militaries are drawing up plans at this moment.

I see many of the various scenarios pandered about as possibilities, including a small nuclear war. Or Mr. Putin could die tomorrow, which would drastically change the dynamic of this scenario.

These days, I am dealing with family members with undiagnosed mental illness. If I say, "Go to the psych ward and get yourself checked out," that will only make matters worse--even if I am right. Someway I need to coach them into that direction. There's no manual for this. Maybe I will be successful. Maybe a certain line will be crossed, and it is time to end my "appeasement." There is no right answer to this scenario. There is no certainty of where this is going to go, regardless of what actions I take.

In a like manner, foreign affairs operates on the same kind of uncertainty. Our best hope is that we have somehow put the wiser people in place to handle this mess as best they can. All I can say about this is that the Biden administration is probably doing a much better job than the Trump administration would have done.

We really need a system of governance that does not elevate incapable people into these positions.

Edited Response: I just my email. THis Medium article showed up on my email feed. The Medium gods are not as unfriendly as you may think.