I have a different hypothesis for this conflict. I'm working on a Medium article at this moment. Maybe it will be ready in a few days.
There is an interesting phrase in Zelenskyy's Wikipedia bio:
He has had "some progress in tackling corruption."
President Zelenskyy is taking Ukraine away from a kleptocracy and towards a more acceptable level of government corruption. This has to be an alarming direction for the various Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs who have been raiding the financies of Ukraine since 1991.
Bring Ukraine under direct Russian rule, and the raiding can continue.