I have not heard this angle before. It just might be an effective form of strategic voting (in the USA).

Having said that, most voters are not political junkies, and hence, will not analyze their vote in this way.

I've always said that the traditional non-voters hold the most power. Political parties are scared of these voters and try not to antagonize them to make the trip to the polls.

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As an aside, I recently read an article on the Monty Hall problem. I still can't make the intellectual jump that the second round is not a 50/50 contest--and switching increases the odds to 67%. However, I would acquiesce to the experts and will make the switch if I am put into this position.