I have some exposure on the technical side of teh petroleum industry. There are a lot "risk" calculations being conducted all the time.

I acquired a textbook about civil investments. Basically, it set up the equations whether to design a bridge for a 30-year life (before renovation) or 50-year life. The math was way above me, but it was interesting to see how much analysis goes into these things.

My question would be how well do politicians understand these risk calculation OR accept the advice of the experts? Remember the USA just had a president would take his gut feeling over this kind of math.

My next question would be how well can the politicians communicate the experts' advice to a public who generally has a rather poor understanding of risk management.