I kind of doubt the defence industry is calling the wars. It is more likely they know war is going to happen somewhere sooner or later, and they are just positioning themselves for when it happens.

We weren't in the back rooms when these decisions were made to assist Ukraine. There is a whole social/psychological science that predicts such outcomes. That analysis may have said that if Russia takes Crimea, they will eventually take the rest the Ukraine. From there, Moldava, Latvia, Lithiania, and Estonia would be next. Then Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. All this is possible given the psychology of Putin and many Russian people.

It's not hard to imagine western powers assisting to modernize Ukraine's army after the annexation in 2014.

Had the Ukrainian army not put up the resistance that it did---AND MORE IMPORTANTLY---the Russian military has been starved of funds for a long time, the West would have let Ukraine fall--and relied on diplomacy to prevent further annexations of the other countries. That diplomacy may have or may not have worked.

As things are currently, we are in a situation no one could have predicted a year ago. The back rooms are busy. Some analysts are saying that there have been some unofficial channels working with the Russians to find a solution.