I read a book quite a few years ago about the best sign for an upcoming recession: cardboard!
When cardboard production goes down, a recession is about six months away. The book was written before the days of cardboard recycling. When prices for cardboard bales went from $100 to $30 a ton, I thought it was time for that statistical eventuality.
I sold part of a mutual fund to finance my new book. Now I wish I had sold the whole fund!
The next populist president in the USA will be smarter than Mr. Trump. An oligarchy is a couple of decades away.