Nov 19, 2024
I read that article as well. I was not seeing a great correlation. Had an R value been calculated, I estimate R=0.25 which is showing some correlation. Other factors must be also weighing in. Each election is different.
And are the polling companies really that accurate? Even a +/-2% margin of error gives some variability in the R value. If they are at +/- 4%, this might throw the whole hypothesis out.