I’ll just pick up the Battle of Midway, which is regarded as a decisive point in the Pacific Theatre of WW2. Let’s assume that the because of an errant move of an American admiral the battle was lost.
If we compare the two economies at the time, we see that Japan was maxed out. There was no way it could have kept up building new armaments to replace the ones lost in battle. Meanwhile, the USA was churning out new ships, tanks, and planes right up to war’s end. If Midway had a more Japanese favorable result, the American submarine force would have still been harassing Japanese convoys until another sizeable American force could have been gathered together. Rather than seeing the battle as one fleet against the other, think of one economy against the other. In my understanding of history, the stronger economy wins a prolonged war but it may lose a few battles.
If Trump voters have lost their moral compass, I would say many became this way because they don’t have a lot of choice. The D’s have lost theirs. In many voters’ minds, morality no longer matters: just get a conservative elected by any means. We argue that one side is more immoral than the other, but psychology has all sorts of ways to let us believe what we want to believe. The D’s have lost their moral compass — and that is a fact that cannot be mitigated by the other side is more immoral (in our humble opinions).
USA could indeed be at a turning point in history. Issac Asimov prophesied that democracies have a shelf life of two to three centuries before they fall apart from internal forces. We may indeed be at this cusp. If we are, then the two of us are wasting our time talking to each other in this way.
If we are just coming up to this cusp, the 2020 election may indeed be having a Battle of Midway. Yes a Mr. Biden may delay the inevitable “Asimov result” by a few four-year terms. But like the American economic might of WW2, the Trump base is still strong and united. It won’t matter if D’s or R’s win the election in 2020. The eventual result is an R takeover of government.
In my opinion, Mr. Trump really does not have the tools to put a coup together. And he is elderly. While I’m amazed at his energy levels, he will eventually tire out and die. The White House is a dysfunctional circus that cannot put together a coherent plan together — good or evil. And personalities like him seldom leave behind a viable successor to his movement. I’m more worried about next populist leader who will likely be smarter and more visionary (and not in the right way). That person could deliberately and successfully fulfill Mr. Asimov’s prophecy.
The best way to destabilize the Trump base is to let Mr. Trump continue to run the show until enough of them become convinced that Mr. Trump is indeed the fool that he really is. And that means giving him four more years to prove his ineptness to clean up the mess he created. Boot him out now, the base will remain strong for another decade. They will find their Trump 2.0!
But that is all speculation. While I called a Trump presidency a lot sooner than nearly all pundits, I was wrong at how strong his base has remained united in spite of his ineptness for the job. And for that, I am humbled at my lack of ability to be a political fortune teller. If I can be wrong, so too can you.
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If you are truly committed to defeating Mr. Trump and want to sway some of those soft D supporters to vote on election day, then the best use of your resources would be to volunteer your time at your local D campaign office. Canvass homes to find out where those soft D supporters are. If they are not friendly to Mr. Biden, don’t argue with them. Make your point politely (to put a bug in their ear), mark them down as soft support, go find the next soft D support, pass the info to your campaign office. They should have the tools to convince 50% of the soft support to turn up on election day, which is a lot better than 0%. In this way, you could bring in 100 votes for your cause.
If you live in a swing state, you and a thousand other volunteers can turn the state to your favor. If you live in a red state, your volunteer work will cause the other side to divert resources towards that state — and away from other states. If you live in a blue state, your work will allow your generals to divert resources to swing states.
But to think you can influence people on Medium, forget it. People’s minds here are made up and inflexible. If someone is writing articles because they are not going to vote for Biden because the DNC dumped all over Bernie, you are unlikely to change their mind.
Just take my example. I have been here for a year to convince people to build a new kind of democracy. How many people have I convinced? ZERO!
Go volunteer and turn 100 votes to the Biden way. You are wasting your time here.
