Interesting analysis. As a Canadian watching American politics, I often wonder at the distinction between red and blue states. Even though a state or district votes one way for a long time, the vote seldom goes beyond a 60/40 split. In Canada, we would call that a reasonably close election.

On a similar note, any 60/40 traditional split could be easily upset by the 50% of Americans who normally don’t vote. So most elections in the USA have the potential of flipping.

The 50% who normally don’t vote are the most powerful voting block in USA.