It depends on how one is interpreting polls. Unfortunately, many pundits will predict a 50.5-to- 49.5 split is going give a victory to the 50.5. But the real truth is the two sides are in a close race, and a little good/bad news can shift that result to the 49.5.

Another aspect is that polls do not measure motivation to vote. It's not hard to imagine that many in the demographic of Muslim Americans would tend to favor the Democrats. And Biden's overt support of Israel is going to see many of the Muslim demographic not voting in 2024. I estimate 500,000 fewer votes for D's. Not much in 200,000,000 voters, but in a coin flip election that half million is significant.

In general, the political writers and readers on Medium do not believe in soft support------and elections are mostly designed to motivate the soft support on our side to vote and the soft support of the other side not to vote.