Politics is often about timing. And good timing is often more luck than good planning.

Let's do some risk analysis for Liz's ambitions. At this point, we should assign a 90% probability that Mr. Trump or his handpicked successor is going to win the 2024 primary battle. We can't assign 100% because politics is not 100% predictable. Things may happen between now and then to make the Trump cult unravel. So we can give someone else a 10% chance.

Liz's actions are putting her in a good position to be that 10% chance.

Liz has put a lot of effort into politics for many years. A little extra effort to be on a quasi campaign trail for the next two years is not that big of investment.

I would call this move a low chance / low investment / high stakes gamble. I think it makes good political sense. A book deal can give her exposure and help finance her compaign.

If we were to take this scenario one step further, let’s assume Liz loses the R primary. Does she put herself into a third-party candidate? This move could siphon off enough votes to ensure the R candidate loses. Or it could siphon off R-voters who were going to vote D in this particular election. Which is these is more likely, I cannot say.

Maybe the bigger question is what will happen to the 19m voters that Mr. Biden found over Ms. Clinton? Are they coming back to the polls?