Thank you for your thoughtful response.
I had a humbling experience a few years back. When Mr. Trump held that Bible in front of that church, he looked quite foolish. I thought, for sure, he was going to lose the votes of many Christians. I could see about 5m fewer votes for him in 2020. Not a big drop in support, but enough to ensure his defeat.
Well, we know that did not happen. His vote went from 62m to 74m. I was wrong.
There is always a danger in political forecasting--for anyone. Even the experts working the back rooms are often wrong. Those of us on the outside with limited information and understanding cannot be smarter than these experts. We need to consider our convictions with some degree of humility.
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True it is that NATO was looking for a purpose after the collapse of the USSR. Serbia kind of revitalized NATO when the UN failed to react to the Kosovo crisis. Without the NATO angle, the Albanians in Kosovo (90% of the population) would have been driven out. So from my limited understanding, we had a decision to make: either let this ethnic cleansing happen or stand up to the bully. I have not heard of any credible third alternative.
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I'll just reiterate my previous point. The former Warsaw Pact countries wanted to be under the NATO umbrella because they could foresee a Russian desire to occupy and dominate them again.
Ukraine is fighting hard--and putting up with a lot of crap--because they do not want Russian occupation again.
I have my doubts that the west curtailing the NATO expansion would have stopped the Russians invasion of Ukraine and other Warsaw Pact countries. .
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When it comes to international affairs, trying to get the right handle on the situation to find the right solution is so elusive. NO ONE has a crystal ball to know how things will work out 10 years from now.
At best, we can hope that we have the better people in the important positions--and they are not working with partisan or ideological or re-election interests in their deliberations.
In that vein, western democracy is not delivering the right people. For that reason, we need to look for another way.
