The "not moving the needle" is a puzzle to many. Trump has gotten away with political gaffes that would have driven other political actors so fast . . . .
I was expecting the polling numbers to drop after the photo op in front of the church. That really made Christianity look silly--and at least 5m soft R voters would not vote in 2020. I was wrong.
But that's when I realized that 30% of Americans would prefer to live in an oligarchy than a democracy. The Trump base is made of at least three different political demographics and they can work together to implement their agenda.
I believe the needle has been pointing in the same place as the 2020 election. But there have been vested interests to report a 50/50 poll. Here's my article on this matter:
https://medium.com/free-factor/the-presidential-polls-are-wrong-76edb7c709c9