The photo op in front of a church clumsily halding a Bible was the start of the unravelling of the presidential campaign. I thought: "Here is a politician not reaching out beyond his base." Everything since then has been going in the same direction.
Here's some more math. With a 40% approval rating and 235m voters, he should get 94m votes. He didn't get this in 2016. He won't get it in November. People will tell pollsters they like what he is doing, pollsters cannot measure the motivation to take a few hours off and cast a vote.
In other words, there's a lot of soft support for Trump. Every little incident is convincing 100,000 of them not to make a trip to the polls on November 3.
And if 10m of the 108m who did not vote in 2016 come to the polls, a Democrat landslide is possible. A 70/30 split is possible. So far, I don't see the Democrats shooting themselves in the foot.
And a D landslide may be necessary to thwart the legal challenges that seem to be mounting up before the votes are counted.