The Russian inference was both overplayed by Umair and underplayed by the respondents who disagreed with him. Let me explain.

Many voters have a pretty good idea of who they want to vote for in an election. It is hard for any kind of advertising to sway this hard support. And they will march to the polls.

Then there is the soft support of political parties. They have a preference, but sometimes the effort to go to the polls is not strong. This group can often be swayed not to make that effort by negative adverting against their preference. No, they do support the other party, but a vote not cast to the enemy is still a vote for the good guys. Does negative political advertising work? You bet; otherwise the parties and their financial backers would not spend money on negative ads.

Then there are the fickle voters (of which I used to belong) who have a sense of civic duty to cast a ballot, but not really sure where. The wrong kind of press just prior to election day can sway these voters to change their minds.

Here is where the whole thing is overplayed. Whatever the Russians did in 2016, it was a minuscule result. Maybe 100,000 votes were swayed by the Russians; maybe 500,000 votes. Maybe these extra votes were enough tip enough swing states to cast their electoral votes to Mr. Trump. Who knows for sure? But we can’t prove it because the Russian interference is so small.

Let’s give Mr. Trump credit: he got most of his 62m votes on his own merit.

And let’s just admit that Israel, NRA, and ExxonMobil probably had more influence than the Russians. So why are these three interferences OK, but the Russians not OK?

Here is where the whole thing is underplayed. Most Americans elections are close races. Even in so-called red and blue districts/states, the vote is often split 55–45 or less. In these races, a little of the right kind of interference in the right time can tip that balance.

We can’t directly prove the Russians managed to change American votes because the actual change will be too small to measure. But like the campaign managers who have seen the effectiveness of negative advertising, the Russians know their minuscule efforts in those close races can bring the results the Russians are looking for. Why not make the political investment? There is nothing to lose (except a few million dollars, but hey the Russians can afford that).

We should expect more interference from foreign actors in the future. Today, Mr. Trump pissed China off with the tariff war. Should we not be surprised that China inclandestinely sets up a few Google or FB ad campaigns to influence 100,000 votes to the D’s in 2020? Why should we assume they won’t?

If America really wants to get rid of both undue foreign and domestic influence in its elections, it needs to develop a new system of governance — one that will never be influenced by big money and nefarious actors.

But I think America likes the drama. Umair sure likes writing articles about the drama.