There are mathematical models that try to predict the deaths of pandemics, based on various actions. I’ve been waiting for the media to report on these models, and finally something came through to me. I can’t remember the exact source, but there should be some caution: it was from a mainstream American media outlet and because of not yet enough data, the mathematical models are just a best guess. Here is the findings:

If the USA did nothing, about 2m people would die. That’s less than 1% of the population.

If the USA shut down schools and large public gatherings, about 1m people will die.

If the USA shut down small public gatherings, the total comes to less than 500,000.

If this model is reasonably accurate, then the health care system is going to be overwhelmed as the system tries to save some of us. That is why the government is “shutting us in.” Whether I agree with it or not, I understand why it is taking the actions — and I will do my best to obey those directives.

I believe other models are going to produce similar predictions. Here’s one from Stanford that I probably should spend more time with:

http://math.cmu.edu/~wes/covid.html

There’s nothing that I have seen that suggests only a few people are going to die — if we do the right things.

And unfortunately, the economy is going to take a big hit. It would take a big hit regardless of the shut-in policy. We just can’t have a large fraction of our workforce not working. There will be a big social impact. The big injection of cash into western economies could result in big inflation, but the wizards at the central banks may have a few tricks up their sleeves.

As for the rich somehow coming out OK (if they don’t contract the lethal Covid-19), you are probably right. It will be the middles and lower classes eventually taking the greatest economic hit. But that is a product of our current system of governance, not Covid-19.