There are so many variables that no one really knows where this "war" or "no-war" can go.

Missiles seem to have rendered tanks and fighter jets somewhat useless. If the Patriot system works as well as the defence contractors say, this could render the Russian conventional war effort next to zero.

And this could lead to the crazy man with no alternative but to use nuclear weapons. But are these weapons working? Will the technical people of these weapons actually push the button? Who knows?

Ukraine will win this way if the Russian federation collapses. There are signs this is happening. But when?

What will be the effects on the world of a Russian collapse? I'm not sure the thinkers in the back rooms are thinking this far in advance. I predict China will take many of the eastern Russian provinces--easier than invading Taiwan.

There is no doubt in my mind had the Russian army been strong enough to take Kiev in a couple of weeks, NATO would have folded quickly as that army advanced into previous Russian controlled territories. The west would not have liked this situation, but it would have put up with it. The resolve of the Ukrainian people surprised most of us.

In the long term, a Ukrainian victory will accomplish two things: 1) The Russians will lose their entitlement that their destiny is to control other ethnic groups. 2) The Ukrainian nation will forge a new national identity, similar to the USA when it defeated the British.

However, a new Ukraine just might become a plaything of the west. The political scientists will re-constitute democracy to suit the needs of the IMF and those who profit from IMF decisions.

We really need a new way of governance.

For no other reason that when we stand up to a bully, we were not a bully to get to the position where we could stand up to a bully.