There was a Medium article that summarized the outcomes of the 1918 Spanish flu. Those American cities who enforced some degree of intervention fared better than those cities who did not. These studies may have had some influence on the 2020 response.
Unfortunately, what happened in 1918 may not be the same in 2020.
My recollection is that Canada had half the Covid deaths, on a per-capita basis, than the US. Canada had stronger interventions and Canadians were more compliant than Americans. This, to me, is a sign that some of the interventions did work. But we live in a world that likes its either/or logic and cannot see things in grey scales.
My recollection is that many Swedes took a more voluntary approach to reduce social contact. We--in the other western nations--still wanted to go to rock concerts and hockey games and churches while the pandemic was all around us--until we were forced not to do so. Deaths would have been much higher without these shutdowns.
We might agree that the experts went on overkill, ignoring the important social functioning of society. Anyways, this inspired me to create a pandemic simulation that balances physical health against mental health.
