This was interesting. Unfortunately, this math is probably irrelavent to "solve" thsi problem.

Let's look at the margin in this example: A = 48% and B = 49%. The effectiveness of the ground team (i.e. get out the vote) will be more crucial will be more important than the 1% advantage of Candidate B. And the effectiveness of negative advertising (to keep soft supporters of the opposing side away from the polls) will be more important than the 1%. Add in a newsworthy item before the election (like the Comey allegation in 2016), that too will have a bigger impact. In other words, seemingly random events in this scenario will override any probabilistic math.

Another problem with this essay is that 48% is deemed unpopular and 49% is deemed popular. I would disagree with this terminolgy. We would better infer that Candidate A is popular with 48% of the voters, not unpopular. Candidate C would be unpopular.

Too many Medium contributors regard the 2020 presidential election as a decisive win for Mr. Biden. Sorry the 81m to 74m split in popular vote is not decisive. Mr. Trump was a viable contender in 2020.

I cant' see how essays like this will lead to a better democracy.