True my assessment is anecdotal.
From what I could gather from the Canadian news, the Republican Party did not have much of a ground team in 2016, when compared to the Democrats. In other words, those who voted for Mr. Trump did not need campaign workers to convince them to make it to the polls. The R’s were more committed, and I suspect they will have similar motivation in November.
But here’s some interesting math. The polls say Mr. TRump has approval of 40% of Americans. With 250m eligible voters, that means — if all these voters are committed — Mr. Trump should receive 100m votes. He didn’t get that number in 2016 and he is not going to get it in 2020. What this really means is that even Trump supporters can be be convinced to stay away from the voting station for a variety of reasons.
Soft support for a political party or candidate is something many Medium readers do not seem to understand or want to believe actually exists.
I had an aunt who the pollsters just loved phoning. She was called about once a month for about three years.She answered all their silly questions — and had strong opinions on everything. Except she never voted in her entire life. Whatever insights the pollsters got from her was kind of redundant because she was a non-voter.
Since then, I tend to disregard poll results — because they can’t determine the motivation to make a trip to the voting station.