Umair: Your two previous articles made sense. This one does not.
Partisan politics is not about right or wrong: it is about winning elections. Until you and your readers really understand this, your musings can’t shape the future of the USA.
In my mind, Ms. Pelosi is very tactful. She couldn’t move with impeachment when Mr. Trump is sitting at 40% approval rate. His base is motivated to vote: they will stand in long lines to cast their ballot. The other base? Well, a good ad campaign to remind them of the sins of the D’s can convince many of them not to go the polls. Ms. Pelosi knows about the “soft” support of the D’s. Umair does not seem to get this.
The Ukrainian scandal is not exactly a smoking gun (in my opinion). But it is the last straw to break the camel’s back. Two things happened. First, Ms. Pelosi understood that she would start to lose more of her base if she did not start the impeachment. Second, it seems she correctly sensed that Mr. Trump is finally going to lose support as recent polls are suggesting. So the Ukrainian scandal is exactly the time to act. So she waited for the right kind of mistake — — — — — if winning the next election is the objective.
Doing things your way, Umair, Ms Pelosi should have started impeachment 2 years ago. Yes, there were already grounds for impeachment back then. You know that. But what if she charged ahead? She would be right, but she risked making the D’s look like a bunch of vindictive fools who knew they could never win the senate. And that soft support of the D’s: they are more likely to stay away from the polls — — giving free rein for that 40% R support to trounce the D’s in the next election. Is that the solution you really want?
Hard support vs. soft support. That is the battle Ms. Pelosi is fighting, not right or wrong. I think she is going a fantastic job of managing this battle.
Is she slow playing the impeachment process? Probably. While I’m not a fly in the wall in her office, here is what I suspect is happening. First slow playing the impeachment means not much gets done in Congress, which is probably a good thing given who is president. Second, slow playing gives the president more rope to hang himself. And he will; Ms. Pelosi need only wait. Third, by delaying the Senate vote for as long as possible — right up to November 2020, Ms. Pelosi is forcing the R Senators into a very tight box. As support for the president drops (it will), they have to choose whether to drop their support for the president or risk losing their senate seat if they vote to acquit the president. How can a Senator justify supporting a president who is obviously corrupt even though still having a 25% approval rating?
How does the sins of the D’s play into her thinking? Here’s one sin, and Mr. Trump was on to something. Question: How does a loser American get a directorship in a big Ukrainian energy company with absolutely no experience in the energy business? Answer: his dad used to be Vice President and used his position for some quid pro quo. Oh, and Dad is still running for the top job. Ms. Pelosi knows that more time is needed to ensure the R sins are much bigger than the D sins.
Ms. Pelosi is playing this impeachment game very skillfully — from what I can see. Historians like to debate how various battles were won, showing how the winning general outsmarted the losing general. Often battles are won by timing. Ms. Pelosi has timing.
Umair does not respond to any comments and that is his choice. Besides he believes Elizabeth Warren will fix American politics, so there is no need for him to take what I have to say seriously.
But to Umair readers, I offer this challenge. If we really want to change the motives of our elected representatives away from winning election and towards doing the right thing at the right time, please consider Tiered Democratic Governance.
It is time for USA to find some new founding fathers (and mothers). Especially the kind who have purged racism, misogyny, and elitism from their psyche.