Very well written.
There's so many angles here, and it's hard to predict how things will turn out--just like trying to predict the second quarter of a football or basbetball game. Too much happening in real time. The best we average people can hope for that we have good coaches and players in charge. Kind of scary!
On the Pacific side pre WW2, the USA was diplomatically challenging the Japanese expanion in SE Asia during the 1930s. They were proactive on this diplomatic front, which could have contributed to the war in the Pacific Theatre. Strange that one ocean was favored over the other in those times. International diplomacy is indeed confusing.