You are bringing up some good points here. This war would have take a different direction if 2020 election went the other way.
And yes, the war might be a useful distraction from the Hunter Biden affair. Not exactly a good reason to stage a war.
You might be interested on my take on how the Hunter laptop could flip the election and put the Ukrainians as slaves to Russians (again):
https://medium.com/me/stats/post/d63b89ba2f3f
You have made some great points. While we're still far away in agreement, much of your analysis is still great proof why we need a different democracy.